"Illegitimate and corrupt governments," State-Sponsored Violence & "Perceptions Of Criminality" Top Influences In Rise Of Terrorism
"Lack Of Political Legitimacy" & "Powerful external actors upholding corrupt regimes" cited as causes of terrorism in presitious annual report
By Martin Hill
LibertyFight.com
November 18, 2014


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The newly released 'Global Terrorism Index' spawned plenty of fear-mongering headlines by the corporate mainstream media, but the extensive report actually includes some extremely revealing and seldom-mentioned facts about the actual causes and remedies of terrorism. MSN, for example, ran the dramatic headline "Fivefold increase in terrorism fatalities since 8/11, says report". But the details in the report itself are not likely to win support for the commonly alleged causes or solutions to the so-called "global war on terror."

The Institute for Economics & Peace released the report, officially titled Global Terrorism Index 2014 -Measuring And Understanding The Impact Of Terrorism".

A public which perceives that the government is not legitimate, along with unchecked corruption and lack of political recourse, may eventually result in terrorism. The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) notes that "Lack of political legitimacy", "state-sponsored violence" & "perceptions of criminality" are very influential in the rise of terrorism. "Social hostilities, ongoing conflict, a lack of social cohesion, and a lack of political stability have a strong statistical relationship to the GTI," the report states. "Measures of state repression such as extrajudicial killings, political terror and gross human rights abuses" are also a top contributing factor.


The report repeatedly stresses the fact that "While drivers of terrorist activity are often complex and multidimensional, there are several generalised and significant socio-economic correlates of terrorism. Countries with higher levels of terrorism were found to have three statistically significant factors... The most significant socio-economic correlates with terrorism can be grouped into three main factors:
  • Measures of social hostilities between different ethnic, religious and linguistic groups, lack of intergroup cohesion and group grievances.
  • Measures of state sponsored violence such as extrajudicial killings, political terror scale and poor human rights.
  • Measures of other forms of violence including perceptions of criminality, violent demonstrations and levels of violent crime."

    The GTI notes that "the most significant socio-economic factors linked to terrorist activity" are:

  • Weak state capacity.
  • Illegitimate and corrupt governments.
  • Powerful external actors upholding corrupt regimes.
  • Extremist ideologies.
  • Historical violence and conflict.
  • Inequality in power.
  • Repression by foreign occupation or colonial powers.
  • Discrimination based on ethnic or religious origin.
  • Failure of the state to integrate dissident groups of emerging social classes.

    The report continues "The two most successful strategies for ending terrorist groups since the late 1960s have been either policing or the initiation of a political process. These strategies were the main reason for the ending of over 80 per cent of terrorist organisations that ceased operation. Only ten per cent of terrorist groups could be said to have achieved their goals and only seven per cent were eliminated by full military engagement."

    To put an end to terrorism, the report explains that "longer term approaches are essential. These longer term priorities include the need to address group grievances, ending gross physical rights abuses by the state and improving access to justice and the rule of law."


    TABLE 7, 'THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CORRELATIONS WITH THE GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX,' states "The most statistically significant correlates with terrorism include measures of social hostilities and lack of intergroup cohesion and group grievances, but also measures of state sponsored violence such as extrajudicial killings, political terror scale and poor human rights.

    "Correlates of terrorism From thousands of socio-economic, governance and attitudinal variables analysed, three groupings of indicators show a multivariate significant relationship with the GTI:

  • Political stability
  • Intergroup cohesion
  • Legitimacy of the state"

    Page 62 reveals "When conducting a more in-depth multivariate analysis it can be seen that the measures of violence, state-sponsored violence, social hostility indicators and governance indicators have the most significant explanatory relationship with the GTI. This suggests, as shown in the previous correlations, that political violence in combination with social hostilities is the dominating factor which influences the level of terrorism within a country.


    Page 66 of the report states "Of the indicators used in this analysis, only three show a multivariate significant relationship with the GTI: Political stability, Intergroup cohesion, & Legitimacy of the state. Surprisingly, while none of the violence or economic indicators are significant, three political indicators are significantly related to terrorism. This suggests that a weak political system and a lack of legitimacy of the government combined with group grievances may be more influential in the rise of terrorist organisations than economic performance or violence.

    The report concludes with this explanation: "Comprehensive counter-terrorism efforts are concerned not only with stopping specific terrorist attacks, but also disrupting, breaking up, and eventually ending terrorist groups. Thus, it is important to understand how, historically, terrorist groups come to an end in order tohasten the demise of currently active terrorist groups. A report by the RAND Corporation, which looked at terrorist groups over a forty year period, found that the majority of terrorist groups ended by either joining the political process, meaning either the whole organisation, or via a political wing of the organisation and becoming became a legitimate political party, or were destroyed by policing and intelligence agencies breaking up the group and either arresting or killing key members. Military force in of itself was rarely responsible for ending terrorist groups, as shown in Figure 25.

    In caps, the report notes "AN INDIVIDUAL IS 40 TIMES MORE LIKELY TO BE A VICTIM OF HOMICIDE THAN BE KILLED IN A TERRORIST ATTACK."

    Page 44 of the report, which outlines "DISTINGUISHING BETWEEN TERRORIST ACTIVITY AND WARTIME ACTIVITY," notes that "The actions of governments do not get counted in the The Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and are therefore not included in the Global Terrorism Index (GTI)...The GTD and START (Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism) do not count state terrorism and only record incidents by sub-national actors."

    In the box at the bottom of this page are more extensive relevant excerpts from the 94-page Global Terrorism Index 2014 report.

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    Martin Hill is a Catholic paleoconservative and civil rights advocate. His work has been featured in the Los Angeles Daily News, San Gabriel Valley Tribune, The Orange County Register, KNBC4 TV Los Angeles, The Press Enterprise, LewRockwell.com, WhatReallyHappened.com, Infowars.com, PrisonPlanet.com, Economic Policy Journal, FreedomsPhoenix, Haaretz, TMZ, Veterans Today, Jonathan Turley blog, The Dr. Katherine Albrecht Show, National Motorists Association, AmericanFreePress.net, RomanCatholicReport.com, WorldNetDaily, HenryMakow.com, OverdriveOnline.com, Educate-Yourself.org, TexeMarrs.com, Dr. Kevin Barrett's Truth Jihad radio show, Strike-The-Root.com, Pasadena Weekly, ActivistPost.com, Los Angeles Catholic Lay Mission Newspaper, KFI AM 640, IamtheWitness.com, Redlands Daily Facts, SaveTheMales.ca, BlackBoxVoting, The Michael Badnarik Show, The Wayne Madsen Report, Devvy.com, Rense.com, FromTheTrenchesWorldReport.com, BeforeItsNews.com, The Contra Costa Times, Pasadena Star News, Silicon Valley Mercury News, Long Beach Press Telegram, Inland Valley Daily Bulletin, L.A. Harbor Daily Breeze, CopBlock.org, DavidIcke.com, Whittier Daily News, KCLA FM Hollywood, The Fullerton Observer, Antiwar.com, From The Trenches World Report, and many others. Archives can be found at LibertyFight.com and DontWakeMeUp.Org.



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    I encourage everyone to download Fr. Coughlin's absolutely invaluable books and listen to his recordings. More posts of interest will come in the following weeks and months as time permits. The story of how I came across this great historical figure is here. Resources are at the bottom of this page.

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    "...My friends, have we not learned that modern wars settle no disputes? By this time are we not dissillusioned? Do we not realize that wars are the enemy of democracy? Do we not appreciate that poor men- the laborers and farmers- pay for all wars- pay with their lives or their liberties?"

    Fr. Charles E. Coughlin of Royal Oak, Michigan had one of the most popular radio shows in the U.S. during the late 1930's. At his height of popularity, upwards of thirty million listeners tuned in to his radio show each week and he received 10,000 letters per week with a clerical staff of over 100 people. He advocated a sound money system, abolition of the Federal Reserve, a non-interventionist foreign policy, and was a stringent opponent of both Nazism and Communism, which he pointed out was funded by corrupt Jewish interests and international bankers. Fr. Coughlin exposed war-mongers and government propagandists, which made him a real threat to the establishment. He was a devout and influencial priest who stressed the Gospel and teachings of Jesus Christ. The government banned his programs and threatened to arrest and imprison him. I consider Fr. Coughlin one of the wisest and greatest American heros ever. His material is an absolute treaure, a must-see. His work, in retrospect, was prophetic and still holds true today. .

    EXCERPTS FROM Global Terrorism Index 2014 -Measuring And Understanding The Impact Of Terrorism".
    http://www.visionofhumanity.org/sites/default/files/Global%20Terrorism%20Index%20Report%202014_0.pdf
    [Emphasis in bold added by LibertyFight.com.]

    "The findings in this report are also helpful in providing guidance for assessing the risk of future terrorist attacks in countries where there are currently low levels of activity. By measuring and comparing various political, social and violence indicators, countries at risk of a substantial increase in terrorism can be identified. This report has highlighted 13 countries as being at risk. These countries are Angola, Bangladesh, Burundi, Central African Republic, Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Iran, Israel, Mali, Mexico, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Uganda.

    The two most successful strategies for ending terrorist groups since the late 1960s have been either policing or the initiation of a political process. These strategies were the main reason for the ending of over 80 per cent of terrorist organisations that ceased operation. Only ten per cent of terrorist groups could be said to have achieved their goals and only seven per cent were eliminated by full military engagement.

    Over the last 14 years five per cent of all terrorist deaths have occurred in OECD countries. Excluding the United States on September 11, Turkey and Israel experienced the highest number of deaths. There were eight OECD countries that experienced deadly attacks in 2013, this compares to 20 OECD countries which have had deadly attacks since 2000. Although terrorism is on the increase and a major concern compared to other forms of violence, it is relatively small when compared to the 437,000 people killed by homicides in 2012, this being 40 times greater.

    ... The most significant socio-economic correlates with terrorism can be grouped into three main factors.

  • Measures of social hostilities between different ethnic, religious and linguistic groups, lack of intergroup cohesion and group grievances.
  • Measures of state sponsored violence such as extrajudicial killings, political terror scale and poor human rights.
  • Measures of other forms of violence including perceptions of criminality, violent demonstrations and levels of violent crime.

    When conducting a more in-depth multivariate analysis it can be seen that the measures of violence, state-sponsored violence, social hostility indicators and governance indicators have the most significant explanatory relationship with the GTI. This suggests, as shown in the previous correlations, that political violence in combination with social hostilities is the dominating factor which influences the level of terrorism within a country. Table 7 highlights the correlations of the 2014 GTI with a range of indexes and indicators associated with the level of terrorism. Social hostilities and political violence are the key correlates of terrorism. While these figures only show correlation, not causation, the results provide evidence as to the factors that are associated with terrorist activity. Social hostilities, ongoing conflict, a lack of social cohesion, and a lack of political stability have a strong statistical relationship to the GTI.

    Terrorism can be linked to a range of factors which span economic, social and political dimensions. However there is not one predominant variable responsible for spawning terrorist activity. There are a range of factors which jointly develop the climate for terrorist activity to thrive.


    TABLE 7 THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CORRELATIONS WITH THE GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX The most statistically significant correlates with terrorism include measures of social hostilities and lack of intergroup cohesion and group grievances, but also measures of state sponsored violence such as extrajudicial killings, political terror scale and poor human rights.

    pg 6
    While drivers of terrorist activity are often complex and multidimensional, there are several generalised and significant socio-economic correlates of terrorism. Countries with higher levels of terrorism were found to have three statistically significant factors:

  • Greater social hostilities between different ethnic, religious and linguistic groups, lack of intergroup cohesion and high levels of group grievances.
  • Presence of state sponsored violence such as extrajudicial killings, political terror and gross human rights abuses.
  • Higher levels of other forms of violence including deaths from organised conflict, likelihood of violent demonstrations, levels of violent crime and perceptions of criminality. Importantly, poverty and many other economic factors have little explanatory power on the onset of terrorism. This includes several broader development factors such as mean years of schooling and life expectancy. This underpins the fact that weak political systems, a lack of political legitimacy and the presence of state-sponsored violence are more influential for explaining the rise of terrorist organisations than the broader economic environment. The strong relationship between terrorism and other forms of violence underlines how the persistent targeting of police forces and instability generated by terrorist activity can undermine the rule of law and lead to increases in other forms of violence.bestbest HL lack of political legitimacy state-sponsored violence influencial in rise of terrorism

    Although terrorism is on the increase and a major concern compared to other forms of violence, it is relatively small when compared to the 437,000 people killed by homicides in 2012, this being 40 times greater. The findings of this report emphasise the increasing intensity and spread of terrorist activity globally and highlight the key underlying factors that give rise to terrorism. Short term counter-terrorism and policing strategies can often be critical to prevent the potential of large and unexpected acts of mass violence; however, longer term approaches are essential. These longer term priorities include the need to address group grievances, ending gross physical rights abuses by the state and improving access to justice and the rule of law. Extremist Islamic movements that encourage the use of terrorism need to be counteracted with moderate theologies within Islam that advocate other non-violent methods of addressing legitimate political grievances.


    Key trends
  • In 2013 more than 80 per cent of the lives lost to terrorism occurred in only five countries; Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Syria.

    Putting terrorism in context

  • Around five per cent of all the 107,000 terrorist fatalities since 2000 have occurred in OECD countries.
  • Homicide claims 40 times more people globally than terrorism with 437,000 lives lost due to homicide in 2012, compared to 11,000 terrorist deaths in 2012.
  • Approximately 50 per cent of terrorist attacks claim no lives.
  • The long term indirect costs of terrorism can be 10 to 20 times larger than the direct costs.

    Tactics and patterns

  • The primary target of terrorism has consistently been private property and citizens.
  • 60 per cent of all attacks involve the use of explosives, 30 per cent use firearms and 10 per cent used other tactics including incendiary devices, melee attacks and sabotage of equipment.
  • Religion as a driving ideology for terrorism has dramatically increased since 2000. Prior to 2000 nationalist separatist agendas were the biggest drivers of terrorist organisations.
  • Political and national separatist movements are still significant in 2013 but have seen little change over the 14 year period.
  • Explosives accounted for the majority of attacks, while suicide bombings accounted for less than five per cent of all terrorist attacks since 2000.

    Correlates of terrorism

  • From thousands of socio-economic, governance and attitudinal variables analysed, three groupings of indicators show a multivariate significant relationship with the GTI:
  • Political stability
  • Intergroup cohesion
  • Legitimacy of the state


    pg 62
    When conducting a more in-depth multivariate analysis it can be seen that the measures of violence, state-sponsored violence, social hostility indicators and governance indicators have the most significant explanatory relationship with the GTI. This suggests, as shown in the previous correlations, that political violence in combination with social hostilities is the dominating factor which influences the level of terrorism within a country.

    This section describes how the results of the statistical analysis carried out for the GTI can be used to develop a quantitative understanding of the future risk of terrorism. Using terrorist incidents and events data dating back to 1970 and comparing it to over 5,000 socio-economic, political and conflict indicators, three groups of factors related to terrorist activity have been identified. Countries that are weak on these factors and do not have high levels of terrorism are assessed as being at risk. The correlations section of this report details the most significant socio-economic correlates with terrorism. There are three groups of factors:

  • Social hostilities between different ethnic, religious and linguistic groups, lack of intergroup cohesion and group grievances.
  • Measures of state repression such as extrajudicial killings, political terror and gross human rights abuses.
  • Other forms of violence such violent crime, organised conflict deaths and violent demonstrations.

    .....Understanding the statistical patterns of terrorist activity and its socio-economic drivers is a useful starting point for conceptualising the key risk factors. Over 5,000 datasets, indexes and attitudinal surveys were statistically compared to the GTI to find the most significant socio-economic factors linked to terrorist activity. This process identified several key indicators which were significantly correlated to terrorism.

    These factors were compared to the literature on the conditions that are considered conducive for breeding terrorist violence. There was significant overlap between the IEP statistical analysis and the literature.17 Several key variables were then chosen and a multivariate analysis was performed to understand key causal factors. This process is further detailed in the correlations section. Key factors analysed were:

  • Weak state capacity.
  • Illegitimate and corrupt governments.
  • Powerful external actors upholding corrupt regimes.
  • Extremist ideologies.
  • Historical violence and conflict.
  • Inequality in power.
  • Repression by foreign occupation or colonial powers.
  • Discrimination based on ethnic or religious origin.
  • Failure of the state to integrate dissident groups of emerging social classes.

    The economic indicators used in the analysis are foreign direct investment (net inflows) and trade as a per cent of GDP. Both indicators are taken form the World Bank data bank. Political stability, legitimacy of the state, the level of human rights and the number of refugees and IDPs are taken from a range of sources. The police rate, homicide rate and incarceration rate per 100,000 people are based on GPI data. pg 66


    Of the indicators used in this analysis, only three show a multivariate significant relationship with the GTI:
  • Political stability
  • Intergroup cohesion
  • Legitimacy of the state Surprisingly, while none of the violence or economic indicators are significant, three political indicators are significantly related to terrorism. This suggests that a weak political system and a lack of legitimacy of the government combined with group grievances may be more influential in the rise of terrorist organisations than economic performance or violence.

    Comprehensive counter-terrorism efforts are concerned not only with stopping specific terrorist attacks, but also disrupting, breaking up, and eventually ending terrorist groups. Thus, it is important to understand how, historically, terrorist groups come to an end in order to hasten the demise of currently active terrorist groups. A report by the RAND Corporation, which looked at terrorist groups over a forty year period, found that the majority of terrorist groups ended by either joining the political process, meaning either the whole organisation, or via a political wing of the organisation and becoming became a legitimate political party, or were destroyed by policing and intelligence agencies breaking up the group and either arresting or killing key members. Military force in of itself was rarely responsible for ending terrorist groups, as shown in Figure 25.

    The report also found that the manner in which a terrorist organisation developed was closely related to the goals of that organisation. Terrorist groups with narrow goals were much less likely to engage in widespread violence, were more likely to find common ground or at least negotiate a settlement with the acting government, and thus more likely to seek legitimisation through the political process. Conversely, groups with broad goals or those groups with an international focus and a religious orientation were much less likely to achieve their goals, and are more likely to continue operating, increase in size, and need military intervention to halt them. Of all the terrorist groups tracked in the report between 1968 and 2006, 62 per cent ended, but of these only 32 per cent of religious terrorist groups ceased operating.

    pg44
    BOX 2 DISTINGUISHING BETWEEN TERRORIST ACTIVITY AND WARTIME ACTIVITY
    The Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) classify terrorism as actions outside the context of legitimate warfare activities. That means only acts which are contrary to international humanitarian law, such as the deliberate targeting of civilians, conducted by sub-national actors are viewed as terrorism. The actions of governments do not get counted in the GTD and are therefore not included in the GTI. The GTD and START do not count state terrorism and only record incidents by sub-national actors. Battle deaths when state actors are involved are not defined as acts of terrorism, but rather the result of war. As such, a group such as ISIL attacking a Syrian Army regiment would not be classified as terrorism by either side but as a wartime activity. Terrorism often invokes a distinct political or ideological message to be conveyed to a larger audience than the immediate victims, which is another reason that battle conflicts are not regarded as terrorism.