Social Security Administration To Rely On "Other-Than-Legal Immigration" To Take Up Slack & Pay For Baby Boomer's Benefit Checks Social Security Administration To Rely On "Other-Than-Legal Immigration" To Take Up Slack & Pay For Baby Boomer's Benefit Checks
By Martin Hill
LibertyFight.com
July 12, 2016


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What happens when a criminal government fleeces the people for their entire lives by forcing them to pay into a mandatory social security program yet then spends all the money that was slated for those benefits? Why, they rely on a younger host of illegal aliens- excuse me, "other-than-legal immigration," as they politely put it, to take up the slack in future generations.

Here is what the Social Security Administration says about immigration in their official 272-page '2016 OASDI Trustees Report.' OASDI stands for old age, survivor and disability insurance, which is more commonly referred to as Social Security.

Earlier we reported on how The U.S. Social Security Administration admits in their official report that that their reserves will be depleted By 2034 and that scheduled tax income is projected to be sufficient to pay only 75% of benefits thereafter, until 2090.

As the baby boomers age and start to collect social security benefits, the government bureaucrats in D.C. admit that "other-than-legal immigration" is expected to cover a share of the forecasted social security payouts. The trustees take into consideration a great deal of factors and 'demographic assumptions' into their future projections, including immigration, marriage rates, fertility rates, birth rates, death rates, divorce rates, mortality data, taxable payroll, etc.

Their report notes, "Who Are the Trustees? There are six Trustees, four of whom serve by virtue of their positions in the Federal Government: the Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of Labor, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, and the Commissioner of Social Security. The other two Trustees are public representatives appointed by the President, subject to confirmation by the Senate. The two Public Trustee positions are currently vacant."

The SSA expects nearly 1.3 million immigrants PER YEAR to enter the U.S.! They explain, "The projected average total level of net immigration (legal and other, combined) is about 1,291,000 persons per year during the 75-year projection period under the intermediate assumptions."

Here is one of their snippets on "other-than-legal" immigration: "Third, the assumed ultimate marriage rates were decreased somewhat to reflect a continuation of recent trends. This change increased the actuarial balance by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll. Fourth, including more recent legal and other-than-legal immigration data and updating historical population data combined to decrease the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 0.02 percent of taxable payroll."

They continue "Trust fund income will depend on how these factors affect the size and composition of the working population as well as the level and distribution of earnings. Similarly, program cost will depend on how these factors affect the size and composition of the beneficiary population as well as the general level of benefits. The Trustees make basic assumptions for several of these factors based on analysis of historical trends, historical conditions, and expected future conditions. These factors include fertility, mortality, immigration, marriage, divorce, productivity, inflation, average earnings, unemployment, real interest rate, and disability incidence and termination. Other factors depend on these basic assumptions. These other, often interdependent, factors include total population, life expectancy, labor force participation, gross domestic product, and program-specific factors. Each year the Trustees reexamine these assumptions and methods in light of new information and make appropriate revisions. The Trustees selected the assumptions for this report by the end of December 2015."

Excerpts from the report are below. [Also be sure to see this, from WhatReallyHappened.com: FLASHBACK - BILL CLINTON LOOTED SOCIAL SECURITY TO CREATE HIS FEDERAL BUDGET SURPLUS.]

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C. ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE The future income and expenditures of the OASI and DI Trust Funds will depend on many factors, including the size and characteristics of the population receiving benefits, the level of monthly benefit amounts, the size of the workforce, and the level of covered workers' earnings. These factors will depend in turn on future birth rates, death rates, immigration, marriage and divorce rates, retirement-age patterns, disability incidence and termination rates, employment rates, productivity gains, wage increases, inflation, interest rates, and many other demographic, economic, and program-specific factors. Table II.C1 presents key demographic and economic assumptions for three alternative scenarios. The intermediate assumptions reflect the Trustees' best estimates of future experience. Therefore, most of the figures in this overview present outcomes under the intermediate assumptions only. Any projection of the future is, of course, uncertain. For this reason, the Trustees also present results under low-cost and high-cost alternatives to provide a range of possible future experience. The actual future costs are unlikely to be as extreme as those portrayed by the low-cost or high-cost projections.

Average annual net immigration (in thousands) for 2016 to 2090: 1,629

In addition to the change in law, estimates in this report reflect an assumed delay in implementation of portions of the President's 2014 executive actions on immigration. Specifically, the courts have held up implementation of the provision of legal work and residence status for certain individuals who entered the country as children (deferred action for childhood arrivals, or DACA) and the provision for similar status for certain parents of children born in the U.S. or otherwise living in the country legally (deferred action for parents of Americans, or DAPA). As of the time this report was drafted, the Administration is pursuing remedy through the Supreme Court. Last year's report assumed that these actions would become effective late in 2015, with individuals gaining authorization starting around the beginning of 2016. This report assumes that these actions will be implemented one year later, with authorizations beginning at the start of 2017. This assumed delay in implementation has a negligible effect on the financial status of the OASDI program

With the exception of a small change in marriage rates, ultimate demographic assumptions are unchanged from those in last year�s report. All changes in demographic data and assumptions combined to have a negligible net effect on the long-range OASDI actuarial balance. The following paragraph describes four of the demographic assumptions and data changes that, individually, had significant effects on the long-range OASDI actuarial balance. First, final fertility (birth) data for 2013 and 2014 indicate slightly lower birth rates than were assumed for last year�s report for these years. The data also show an increase in birth rates starting in 2014, one year later than assumed in last year�s report. As in last year�s report, the estimates reflect: (1) the effect of the recent economic recession on the total fertility rate for recent years and (2) the assumption that the total fertility rate will rebound to a level temporarily above the ultimate level and will subsequently decline to the ultimate level. This year�s estimates use a slightly smaller rebound in the path to the ultimate total fertility rate, which is again reached in 2027. These changes in historical and projected birth rates decreased the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by about 0.03percent of taxable payroll. Second, incorporating mortality data obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics at ages under 65 for 2012 and 2013 and from Medicare experience at ages 65 and older for 2013 resulted in slightly higher death rates than were projected in last year�s report. These updated data combined to increase the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by about 0.04percent of taxable payroll. Third, the assumed ultimate marriage rates were decreased somewhat to reflect a continuation of recent trends. This change increased the actuarial balance by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll. Fourth, including more recent legal and other-than-legal immigration data and updating historical population data combined to decrease the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 0.02 percent of taxable payroll.

Second, several improvements were made to immigration methods. Historical non-immigrant population counts were revised to match recent totals provided by the Department of Homeland Security. In addition, emigration rates for the never-authorized and visa-overstayer populations were recalibrated to reflect a longer historical period and to be less influenced by the high emigration rates experienced during the recent recession. Finally, the method for projecting emigration of the never-authorized population was altered to reflect lower rates of emigration for those who have resided here longer. These methodological improvements increased the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 0.09 percent of taxable payroll.


Trust fund income will depend on how these factors affect the size and composition of the working population as well as the level and distribution of earnings. Similarly, program cost will depend on how these factors affect the size and composition of the beneficiary population as well as the general level of benefits. The Trustees make basic assumptions for several of these factors based on analysis of historical trends, historical conditions, and expected future conditions. These factors include fertility, mortality, immigration, marriage, divorce, productivity, inflation, average earnings, unemployment, real interest rate, and disability incidence and termination. Other factors depend on these basic assumptions. These other, often interdependent, factors include total population, life expectancy, labor force participation, gross domestic product, and program-specific factors. Each year the Trustees reexamine these assumptions and methods in light of new information and make appropriate revisions. The Trustees selected the assumptions for this report by the end of December 2015.

3 The total fertility rate may be interpreted as the average number of children that would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, a specified year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period. A rate of about 2.1 would ultimately result in a nearly constant population if immigration and emigration were both zero, and if death rates were to remain at current levels.

3. Immigration Assumptions Projections of the total Social Security area population reflect assumptions for annual legal immigration, legal emigration, �other immigration,� and �other emigration.� Legal immigration consists of persons who are granted legal permanent resident status. Legal emigration consists of legal permanent residents and citizens who leave the Social Security area population. Net legal immigration is the difference between legal immigration and legal emigration. �Other immigration� consists of immigrants who enter the Social Security area in a given year and stay to the end of that year without having legal permanent resident status, such as undocumented immigrants and temporary foreign workers and students. �Other emigration� consists of other immigrants who leave the Social Security area population or who adjust their status to become legal permanent residents. Net other immigration is the difference between other immigration and other emigration. Net immigration refers to the sum of net legal immigration and net other immigration. Immigration assumptions differ for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost scenarios. The low-cost scenario includes higher annual net immigration and the high-cost scenario includes lower annual net immigration. TableV.A2 contains historical and projected levels of various immigration flows. Legal immigration has increased significantly since World War II, due to various events and legislative changes, including the Immigration Act of 1965 and the Immigration Act of 1990.

The assumed ratios of annual legal emigration to legal immigration are 20, 25, and 30 percent for alternatives I, II, and III, respectively. This range is consistent with the limited historical data for legal emigration from the Social Security area. These ratios are unchanged from last year�s report. Under the intermediate alternative, by combining the ultimate annual legal immigration and emigration assumptions, ultimate annual net legal immigration is 795,000 persons. For the low-cost and high-cost scenarios, ultimate annual net legal immigration is about 1,008,000 persons and 602,000 persons, respectively. The estimated number of other immigrants residing in the Social Security area and the annual level of other immigration have been affected significantly by the recent recession. Net immigration was greatly reduced during the economic downturn. Under the intermediate assumptions, annual other immigration is expected to increase from recent levels, reflecting a continued recovery from levels experienced during the recession.

Emigration from the other-immigrant population includes those who leave the Social Security area and those who adjust their status to become legal permanent residents. This other-immigrant population is highly mobile and far more likely to leave the Social Security area than is the citizen or legal permanent resident population. This year�s report reflects lower assumed departure rates for the unauthorized portion of the other immigrant population. As individuals from this population reside in the country for extended periods of time, they generally become less likely to leave the country.

Under the assumptions and methods described above, the projected size of the other-immigrant population grows substantially. This growth reflects the excess of annual other immigration over the combined annual numbers of emigrants and deaths that occur within the other-immigrant population. Under the intermediate assumptions, projected net other immigration reaches a peak in 2018, reflecting the recovering economy, then sharply decreases over the next few years, primarily due to the decline in the number of other immigrants entering the country, to a stable long-term level. This is followed by a gradual decrease in net other immigration after 2022, due to the increasing number of other immigrants residing in the Social Security area. Because the number of other immigrants leaving the Social Security area is based on rates of departure, an increase in the number of other immigrants residing in the Social Security area results in an increase in the number who emigrate out of the area. All other components of other immigration and emigration are assumed to be stable after 2022, and thus do not contribute toward any change in net other immigration. Under the intermediate assumptions, the projected average annual level of net other immigration over the 75-year projection period is about 496,000 persons. For the low-cost and high-cost assumptions, projected average annual net other immigration is about 621,000 persons and 359,000 persons, respectively. The projected average total level of net immigration (legal and other, combined) is about 1,291,000 persons per year during the 75-year projection period under the intermediate assumptions. For the low-cost and high-cost assumptions, projected average annual total net immigration is about 1,629,000 persons and 961,000 persons, respectively. Demographers express a wide range of views about the future course of immigration for the United States. Some believe that net immigration will increase substantially in the future. Others believe that potential immigrants may be increasingly attracted to other countries, that the number of potential immigrants may be lower due to lower birth rates in many countries, or that changes in the law or enforcement of the law could reduce immigration. The average of the 2015 Technical Panel�s recommended annual levels of total net immigration is very close to the average projected in this year�s report.


4. Total Population Estimates The starting Social Security area population for December 31, 2013, is derived from the Census Bureau�s estimate of the residents of the 50 States and D.C. and U.S. Armed Forces overseas. Adjustments are made to reflect mortality assumptions for the aged population since 2010 that are consistent with Medicare and Social Security data, net immigration assumptions for the aged population since 2010, estimates of the net undercount in the 2010 census, inclusion of U.S. citizens living abroad (including residents of U.S. territories), and inclusion of non-citizens living abroad who are insured for Social Security benefits. The Office of the Chief Actuary projects the population in the Social Security area by age, sex, and marital status for December 31 of each year from 2014 through 2090 by combining the assumptions for future fertility, mortality, and immigration with assumptions for marriage and divorce. Previous sections of this chapter present the assumptions for future fertility, mortality, and immigration. Assumptions for future rates of marriage and divorce reflect historical data from the National Center for Health Statistics, the Census Bureau, and selected individual States.

[life expectancy chart is on page 98.]

2. Stochastic Methodology Other sections of this report provide estimates of the financial status of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds using a scenario-based model. For the scenario-based model, the Trustees use three alternative scenarios (low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost) that make assumptions about levels of fertility, changes in mortality, legal and other immigration levels, legal and other emigration levels, changes in the Consumer Price Index, changes in average real wages, unemployment rates, trust fund real yield rates, and disability incidence and recovery rates. In general, the Trustees assume that each of these variables will reach an ultimate value at a specific point during the longrange period, and will maintain that value throughout the remainder of the period. The three alternative scenarios assume separate, specified values for each of these variables. Chapter V contains more details about each of these assumptions.

Assumptions. Values related to future trends in key factors that affect the trust funds. Demographic assumptions include fertility, mortality, net immigration, marriage, and divorce. Economic assumptions include unemployment rates, average earnings, inflation, interest rates, and productivity. Program-specific assumptions include retirement patterns, and disability incidence and termination rates. This report presents three sets of demographic, economic, and program-specific assumptions: - Alternative II is the intermediate set of assumptions, and represents the Trustees� best estimates of likely future demographic, economic, and program-specific conditions. - Alternative I is a low-cost set of assumptions- it assumes relatively rapid economic growth, high inflation, and favorable (from the standpoint of program financing) demographic and program-specific conditions. � Alternative III is a high-cost set of assumptions�it assumes relatively slow economic growth, low inflation, and unfavorable (from the standpoint of program financing) demographic and program-specific conditions.

Legal immigration. Consistent with the definition used by the Department of Homeland Security, legal immigration for a given year consists of foreignborn individuals who are granted legal permanent resident status during the year.

Other emigration. Other emigration for a given year consists of individuals from the other-immigrant population who leave the Social Security area during the year or who adjust status to become legal permanent residents during the year. Other immigration. Other immigration for a given year consists of individuals who enter the Social Security area and stay 6 months or more but without legal permanent resident status, such as undocumented immigrants and temporary workers and students.

Pay-as-you-go financing. A financing method in which contributions are established to produce just as much income as required to pay current benefits, with trust fund asset reserves built up only to the extent needed to prevent depletion of the fund by random economic fluctuations.

Payroll tax contributions. The amount based on a percent of earnings, up to an annual maximum, that must be paid by: - employers and employees on wages from employment under the Federal Insurance Contributions Act, - the self-employed on net earnings from self-employment under the Self-Employment Contributions Act, and - States on the wages of State and local government employees covered under the Social Security Act through voluntary agreements under section 218 of the act. Also referred to as payroll taxes.

Demographic: Total fertility rate (children per woman), for 2032 and later. . . . 2.0

Average annual percentage reduction in total age-sex-adjusted death rates from 2015 to 2090 78

Average annual net immigration (in thousands) for 2016 to 2090 (INTERMEDIATE) 1,291

In addition to the change in law, estimates in this report reflect an assumed delay in implementation of portions of the President's 2014 executive actions on immigration. Specifically, the courts have held up implementation of the provision of legal work and residence status for certain individuals who entered the country as children (deferred action for childhood arrivals, or DACA) and the provision for similar status for certain parents of children born in the U.S. or otherwise living in the country legally (deferred action for parents of Americans, or DAPA). As of the time this report was drafted, the Administration is pursuing remedy through the Supreme Court. Last year's report assumed that these actions would become effective late in 2015, with individuals gaining authorization starting around the beginning of 2016. This report assumes that these actions will be implemented one year later, with authorizations beginning at the start of 2017. This assumed delay in implementation has a negligible effect on the financial status of the OASDI program.

Fourth, including more recent legal and other-than-legal immigration data and updating historical population data combined to decrease the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 0.02percent of taxable payroll.

Second, several improvements were made to immigration methods. Historical non-immigrant population counts were revised to match recent totals provided by the Department of Homeland Security.

Similarly, program cost will depend on how these factors affect the size and composition of the beneficiary population as well as the general level of benefits. The Trustees make basic assumptions for several of these factors based on analysis of historical trends, historical conditions, and expected future conditions. These factors include fertility, mortality, immigration, marriage, divorce, productivity, inflation, average earnings, unemployment, real interest rate, and disability incidence and termination. Other factors depend on these basic assumptions. These other, often interdependent, factors include total population, life expectancy, labor force participation, gross domestic product, and program-specific factors. Each year the Trustees reexamine these assumptions and methods in light of new information and make appropriate revisions. The Trustees selected the assumptions for this report by the end of December 2015.

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